On September 20, 2021, Apple released iOS 15. Among its new features is “Mail Privacy Protection”, which does two things:

• Automatically loads all images from emails,
• Hides the IP addresses and location of email recipients.

For years, email service providers have embedded a hidden 1×1 pixel image to track opens. This image was automatically downloaded by recipients when they opened an email, which the providers then saved.

Now, however, all recipients on iOS 15 devices – iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches – register as open whether or not they performed that action.

The result is inflated open rates.

Impact to date

Apple iPhones make up about 48% of the US smartphone market. And in 2022, most email opens happen on a phone – up to 75%. So about 36% of all US email recipients (48% x 75%) could be using iOS 15.

The unknown is the number of iOS 15 users who have email privacy protection enabled. However, Apple’s description — “Protect Mail activity. Hide IP address and privately load all remote content” – probably gets most users to sign up.

Consider the following scenario.

Email recipients, United States:

• iOS 15: 36%
• All others: 64%

Actual historic trade openness rate, average:

Open rate due to iOS 15, US:

• iOS users: 100%
• All others: 20%
• Total, mixed: (36% x 100%) + (64% x 20%) = 48.8%

In short, an average business mailing list might report open rates of 48.8% due to iOS 15 instead of likely true open rates of around 20%.

This calculation, however, assumes that (i) all Apple mobile device users have upgraded to iOS 15, (ii) all have opted in to Message Privacy Protection, and (iii) all live in the United States, where the iPhone has a market of 48%. to share. Worldwide, the iPhone’s market share is around 15%.

Real Increases in Open Rate

The example above represents the maximum impact. But my clients — large enterprises, mostly — saw open rates roughly double, not to 48.8%.

Click-through rates for these customers have remained constant. However, click-to-open rates declined due to the artificially high percentage of opens.

Here are the averages I’ve seen among, again, the big companies.

Opening prices:

• Before iOS 15: 6% – 12%
• After: 18% – 25%

Click rate:

• Before and after: 1% – 4% (no change)

“Click to open” prices:

• Before: 7% – 15%
• After: 1% – 5%

Strategic implications

Testing emails against open rates is compromised. This includes subject lines, time of day, and day of week. However, an A/B test on, say, subject lines should still correctly identify the winner assuming the iOS 15 recipient ratio is consistent for both groups. My clients continue to rely on A/B testing for this reason.

What wouldn’t be accurate is a test that compares subject lines from before and after iOS 15. An example is 2020 holiday emails versus 2021.

Customer journeys that rely on email opens are also compromised. For example, a journey flow is likely inaccurate if it sends a single nurturing message to recipients who opened but didn’t click. All iOS 15 users would receive this message regardless of their actions.

A workaround for many shippers is to use clicks to dictate the path of travel. Some iOS 15 recipients are separated from all others and create separate journey paths for each group. This separation is probably the best option if your email service provider can identify recipient devices.

Industry reaction

Consumers generally support Mail Privacy Protection. However, email marketers understand the unintended consequences. Prior to iOS 15, a consumer who never opened commercial email would eventually stop receiving it. Not so after.

Additionally, open pricing helps marketers understand recipient preferences to adjust content and frequency accordingly. That too is gone. As my colleague Armando Roggio said, vegetarians could now benefit from promotions for pulled pork.